Behind BJP’s Jharkhand loss, tribal trust that divisive tactics couldn’t regain

Winter’s icy grip may not have arrived yet in Jharkhand, but as the assembly election results made evident on November 23, a political frost had unmistakably settled on the BJP in the state. Once the unassailable custodian of Jharkhand, formed in 2000, having ruled the state for 13 years, the BJP now lies shell-shocked, its citadel pounded to ruins by Hemant Soren’s ammo of identity politics mixed with welfare that overwhelmingly appealed to the electorate.
In a staggering reversal of fortunes, the BJP’s tally plummeted to 21 assembly seats, from 25 in 2019, turning its dominance of the past into memory as fleeting as mist on a November morning. The ruling alliance, led by chief minister Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), increased its 2019 count of 47 seats to an emphatic 56 of the total 81 in the state.
At the heart of this seismic shift is Soren himself who, as leader of the JMM and the INDIA alliance, orchestrated the resounding victory. He has etched his name in history as the first Jharkhand chief minister to have overcome anti-incumbency and secured a re-election. His politics resonated deeply with the tribal and women voters, rendering the BJP’s star-studded campaign—featuring Prime Minister Narendra Modi, home minister Amit Shah and a constellation of chief ministers from party-ruled states—ineffective. With both Soren and his wife Kalpana addressing over 100 rallies each, their grassroots campaign triumphed over the BJP’s brute electioneering machinery to strike a connect with the masses.
The BJP’s defeat looks starker in light of its recent successes. Six months ago, the party had swept the Lok Sabha elections in Jharkhand, winning nine of the 14 seats, which translated into leads in 50 assembly segments. Yet, that summer surge has given way to an electoral landscape reshaped by tribal assertion and a rejection of the BJP’s perceived divisive strategies.
Jharkhand, once the BJP’s political backyard, now appears like land reclaimed by its rightful owners. A coalition of tribal, Muslim and women voters—the latter buoyed by the government’s Maiyya Samman Yojana that entitles them to Rs 1,000 as monthly stipend—delivered a sharp and decisive verdict. Women turned out in record numbers to vote—70.46 per cent as against 65.06 per cent men—signifying a tectonic shift that underscored empowerment as much as identity.
The results have bared the decimation of the BJP’s tribal base. Jharkhand’s Scheduled Tribes, comprising about 26 per cent of the population, have historically been the key to electoral success. The 28 tribal-reserved constituencies have long been both the battleground and barometer of political mood.
Of these 28 seats, the BJP managed to win only one—Saraikela, represented by Champai Soren, the JMM veteran-turned-BJP leader who had switched sides after losing his caretaker chief ministerial position to Hemant Soren earlier this year. Champai’s son Babulal Soren lost in Ghatshila, joining a high-profile list of losers who include the wives of former chief ministers Arjun Munda and Madhu Koda. The lone bright spot for the BJP was former chief minister Raghubar Das’s daughter-in-law Purnima Sahu, who won from Jamshedpur East. The victory felt more like a consolation prize than cause for celebration.
In the 2014 state election, the BJP had claimed 11 of the 28 tribal-reserved constituencies. In 2019, the tally dwindled to just two. This year, the JMM-led alliance captured 27 of these seats, leaving the BJP clutching at straws in its bid to reconnect with the tribal electorate.
The BJP’s attempts to fracture the JMM’s tribal-Muslim coalition, accounting for 41 per cent of the population, by raising the threat of Bangladeshi infiltration fell flat. The promise of reclaiming land allegedly encroached upon by “infiltrators” was widely perceived as intended to sow discord. The BJP’s rhetoric sought to pit Adivasis against Muslims. But the results revealed a stronger-than-ever solidarity between these communities, leaving the divisive tactics in tatters.
The campaign’s failure also highlights the limitations of Babulal Marandi, the BJP’s Santhal tribal heavyweight and state president. Despite his strong tribal credentials, Marandi has struggled to resonate with his own community. Contesting from a general category seat—a choice emblematic of his detachment from tribal concerns—Marandi cut a figure more akin to an outsider than a leader. Like Tom Hagen in The Godfather, Marandi is a capable strategist but not a wartime consigliere—ill-equipped to navigate the ferocious political terrain where identity and heritage are as much shields as they are weapons.
For the BJP, the defeat in Jharkhand is not merely an electoral setback; it is a cautionary tale about the perils of neglecting the roots while chasing the fruits. The party, which prided itself as the creator of Jharkhand, now lies estranged from the very tribal community it had set out to champion. Promises unfulfilled, divisive narratives and a failure to adapt have left the BJP grappling with a sobering truth: in Jharkhand, identity runs as deep as its forests’ ancient banyans. For now, the saffron storm has receded in Jharkhand, leaving its forested landscape strewn with debris of broken trust.
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